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Hey there, fellow REIT investors!

You can feel the shift. Analysts are suddenly excited again, issuing buy now reports; and even the YouTube crowd that went missing on REITs for months is now posting with renewed gusto. 

Honestly, I’m glad to see more attention on REITs. But on this channel, this Uncle has never really stopped watching them — through the ups and downs, the tough quarters, and the quiet periods when no one was watching.

I’ve been watching the development of the right conditions for REITs—interest rates, the dividend yields, refinancing requirements—waiting for the last light on the dashboard to turn green. With the Federal Reserve’s September meeting just ahead, that light is finally flickering.

So in this mid-week update, I would like to run through what has happened so far, why are people getting excited, and importantly, what I’m doing for my own REITs portfolio. 

But before we dive in, let me remind you that this post is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decisions. I own some of the REITs discussed, but what works for me might not work for you.

Alright, let’s get started!

The Right Conditions, Finally?

Let’s anchor the moment. The US Fed’s two-day meeting falls on September 16 and 17, and for the first time in a long time, a cut isn’t a hopeful outlier, it’s the base case. 

Futures markets have been pricing at least a 25-basis-point move, pushed along by softer labour signals and the broader shift in the global rate cycle. But with the surprising downward revision of the US labour market adding 911,000 fewer jobs then previously though in March, the indication is that the US has already been slowing since the end of 2024. 

I’m also looking at what policy makers have queued up and what markets are discounting for next week’s decision. 

My “Fear Index” for REITs—the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield—has also done something it stubbornly refused to do for most of the past two years: it has cooled decisively. 

As of this week it’s hovering near the low 4% handle, a clean break from the 4.3% to 4.6% range we were stuck in the earlier part of the year. A gentler 10-year shifts discount rates, steadies risk appetite and, most importantly for REITs, it reduces the interest rate expense for REITs and that’s significant, because REITs are such highly-leveraged investments. 

This isn’t happening in a vacuum. The policy tide globally has already turned. In June, the European Central Bank cut again, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.00% and reinforcing that the world’s major central banks are already some distance down the road we’ve been waiting for the Fed to join. 

When your largest peers have started easing and your own inflation and growth prospects for the economy is softening, the probability of a rate cut goes up and becomes a baseline expectation. 

And in Singapore, you would already know that backdrop has already been quietly—and meaningfully—helpful for REITs. For months, this Uncle has been pointing out that with Singapore interest rates coming down, the Singapore-focused REITs will benefit greatly as they refinance their debt.  

If you’re unaware, short-end yields have reset lower: the most recent six-month T-bill auction cleared at 1.44%, and the one-year T-bill in July was at 1.68%. For income investors, that’s not thrilling at all, but for REITs it’s exactly the sort of environment that reduces pressure on debt costs as maturities roll through 2025–2027. 

And what has happened since then? Many of the Singapore-focused REITs have already announced financials with rising DPUs, boosted by lower interest expenses. Frasers Centrepoint Trust, Suntec REIT, OUE REIT, ESR REIT, one-by-one the benefits are shining through.

So Could This Time Be Different?

So why does September feel different from the fake rallies that many of us suffered in the last two years? Prices went up with great promise, but only to fall back to earth after a few months. 

Back then, the “pivot” rallies were mostly hopes running ahead of policy; inflation continued to threaten, economy remained strong, and even when the Fed delivered cuts last year, the longer term treasury yields continued to rise, and REITs gave back their gains. 

This time we are walking into an actual decision window with a clear path to ease, softer labour data to justify it, and a 10-year yield that’s already trending the right way. If the Fed confirms an easing runway into year-end, discount rates and refinancing costs all shift in favour of highly leveraged investments like REITs. 

Now, if you’re finding this helpful so far, do give this post a like — it really helps more long-term dividend investors discover the channel. And better still, join the channel as a member! Alright, let’s quickly jump back into the post. 

The Dividend Uncle’s Take 

Here’s how I see it:

The kopi is finally arriving. After two years of eggs and toast with no caffeine, the last piece of the REIT recovery breakfast set might finally be hitting the table.

We have falling Singapore rates. We have a Fed that’s now likely to cut. And we have REITs showing actual D.P.U. improvements, not just speculative hope.

That’s enough for me to lean in more meaningfully. I still like to let the US Fed confirm the story, but I don’t want to be the investor who waits for three perfect cuts of interest rates before moving a muscle. 

And just a reminder of how I’m personally approaching it: 

• Firstly, my broad exposure without having to guess the winners, which can be through ETFs. But I’ve personally chosen to go with Syfe REIT+;
  
• Secondly, my core holdings — like CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, Mapletree Industrial Trust, CapitaLand Ascott Trust and Parkway Life REIT — are already benefiting.
  
• And yes, I’m also keeping an eye on higher beta names, like CDLHT or smaller REITs with higher beta such as OUE REIT or Lendlease REIT which I discussed in the last post — the ones that could jump faster on a confirmed Fed cut.

Of course, there are risks. A cut “for the wrong reason” would muddy the picture—if growth were to sour abruptly while financial conditions remained tight, spreads could stay sticky and the multiple might not expand much. Geopolitics and tariff noise haven’t gone away either.

But on balance, my take is simple: the conditions we’ve been patiently waiting for are lining up. I’m not throwing caution to the wind, but I am leaning in, because when the macro turns from a headwind into a tailwind, you don’t wait for the perfect breeze—you set the sails and let the wind do the work.

Alright, that’s all for today’s short post. If the Fed cuts next week, tell me in the comments which REIT you’d top up first, and why. If you found this helpful, a like really helps more long-term dividend investors find the channel. 

Stay steady, invest thoughtfully, and I’ll continue to see you on this channel for all-things REITs, through both good and bad times!